A Week in the Market: a Lot of Nervous Tension (27.02-03.03)

There is a lot of stress in the currency market with new forecasts for further action by the US Federal Reserve. This week, investors will try to work out what to expect.

EUR: in search of any support

The Eurozone and its member countries will present the final data on the service sector business activity index for February. The unemployment rate and the producer price index for January will be published. ECB will publish the minutes of its previous meeting. Any good news will be supportive for the EUR.

USD: strong position

The US dollar is in a strong position because of the Core PCE data and nothing is likely to change that now. This week the US will release durable goods orders, goods trade balance, Conference Board consumer confidence index and other interesting information. The flow of statistics is voluminous but the USD is holding up thanks to market expectations that the Fed's monetary policy will remain tight.

GBP: attention to prices

The UK will publish information on new lending for January, residential property prices and changes in retail shop prices. Price pressures in these indicators are likely to have increased, which could impact the GBP.

JPY: the yen is looking down

Japan will present data on retail sales and industrial production for January. However, it is worth noting that after the Bank of Japan's comments last week the JPY has one direction of movement - down.

AUD: excessive pressure

Australia is preparing to release retail sales statistics for February as well as GDP for Q4 2022. There could be cause for excitement here, but the AUD is now undergoing excessive external pressure to change its trajectory.

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