A Week in the Market: US Labour Market and Details of Business Activity (3-7 April)

AUD: RBA comments in focus

Australia will present its retail sales and trade balance statistics, as well as its financial stability report. However, the focus will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting, the outcome of which could be a rate rise from 3.6% to 3.85%. The comments of the regulator are particularly important: there is a chance that there will be a pause in monetary policy tightening. The AUD is likely to fall in response to such news.

EUR: stability is possible

The eurozone will release data on business activity in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, with all reports expected in the first half of the week. The EUR has a good chance to remain stable.

GBP: expectations of a positive outlook

The UK is preparing a quarterly release on the state of the economy. It could contain an indication of a future rise in GDP, boosted by new trade links. This could be positive for the GBP.

USD: labour market data

The US will present its labour market statistics. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 3.6% in March, while the number of non-farm payrolls increased by 235,000. Average payrolls could rise by a stable 0.3% m/m. All of this constitutes fairly neutral data that could leave the EUR/USD pair without cause for sharp fluctuations.

JPY: analysis of inflation signals

Japan will publish its household expenditure report, which makes especially valuable information. It is an excellent indicator of the population's attitudes to spending and gives a broader understanding of the inflationary environment. The stronger the statistics, the better for the JPY.

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