Byron Wien is back with his 2023 list of 10 surprises for the year

What would a new year be without 10 new surprises from Blackstone's Byron Wien, who now makes the list with chief investment strategist Joe Zidle?I've covered this one for more than a decade and it always makes for interesting discussions. To start, here is his list for last year, which was considerably better than the year before where I'd say he got 2 of 10 right. He defines 'surprises' as events that a normal investor would only assign a one-in-three chance of taking place.The S&P 500 is flat in 2022 and value outperforms growthCPI rises 4.5% for 2022 and persistent inflation becomes the dominant themeYield on the 10-year note rises to 2.75%Group meetings and conventions return to pre-pandemic levelsChina curbs speculative investment in real estateThe price of gold rallies by 20%, crypto continues to gain shareCrude rises above $100 per barrelNuclear power has a renaissanceGovernment enforces new ESG reporting standardsUS can't buy enough lithium to power planned electric vehiclesSome of those are bland but he had a great batting average and his main mistake was under-estimating how far some of his themes would run. It's also a reminder of just how surprising 2022 was.Now for the 2023 list, which is unfortunately far more 'consensus' than 'surprise'.There are new headliner names on 2024 Presidential ticketsFed remains in a tug-of-war with inflationFed overstays its time in restrictive territory, there's a mild recessionThe stock market bottoms in mid-2023MMT is discredited because deficits prove to be inflationaryThe Fed remains more hawkish than other central banks and the dollar stays strong, creating 'generational opportunity' for USD-holders to invest in Europe and JapanChina edges towards 5.5% growth, with positive implications for real assets and commoditiesWTI touches $50 this yearCeasefire in H2 in Ukraine and negotiations beginElon gets Twitter back on the path to recovery by year endRead the full list here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.