COT Metals Update: January 31st data shows Speculator Bets led by Gold & Silver
By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. *** […]
By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
*** This data is almost a month old because the CFTC’s up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC states that they will be back-filling the data over the next couple weeks and will get the data back up to date soon.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver
The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower on January 31st as two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (2,608 contracts) with Silver (1,632 contracts) also showing a positive week.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-4,124 contracts), Copper (-2,955 contracts) and Palladium (-974 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Jan-31-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 471,642 | 16 | 160,281 | 36 | -180,520 | 63 | 20,239 | 31 |
| Silver | 138,263 | 14 | 27,316 | 44 | -40,434 | 57 | 13,118 | 37 |
| Copper | 224,824 | 61 | 17,215 | 50 | -24,414 | 48 | 7,199 | 67 |
| Palladium | 11,245 | 34 | -4,271 | 0 | 4,632 | 100 | -361 | 20 |
| Platinum | 69,121 | 40 | 16,137 | 33 | -22,213 | 65 | 6,076 | 49 |
Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (50 percent) led the metals markets for that week. Silver (44 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) came in at the lowest strength level and was in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (33 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (35.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (35.0 percent)
Silver (44.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (42.4 percent)
Copper (50.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.4 percent)
Platinum (33.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.4 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.3 percent)
Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (13 percent) led the six weeks trends for metals. Gold (10 percent) was the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.
Palladium (-17 percent) led the downside trend scores with Platinum (-12 percent) and Silver (-2.7 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.
Move Statistics:
Gold (10.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.6 percent)
Silver (-2.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.2 percent)
Copper (13.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.0 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.9 percent)
Palladium (-17.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-25.6 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures:
The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 160,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 31st. This was a weekly increase of 2,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,673 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 54.4 | 25.5 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.4 | 63.7 | 5.0 |
| – Net Position: | 160,281 | -180,520 | 20,239 |
| – Gross Longs: | 256,417 | 120,147 | 43,984 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 96,136 | 300,667 | 23,745 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.7 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 35.9 | 63.4 | 30.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.4 | -11.7 | 16.5 |
Silver Comex Futures:
The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 27,316 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 1,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,684 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 39.7 | 34.7 | 17.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.9 | 64.0 | 8.4 |
| – Net Position: | 27,316 | -40,434 | 13,118 |
| – Gross Longs: | 54,867 | 47,997 | 24,665 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 27,551 | 88,431 | 11,547 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.2 | 57.0 | 37.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.7 | -0.1 | 13.7 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures:
The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 17,215 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -2,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,170 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 38.0 | 36.3 | 8.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.3 | 47.2 | 5.6 |
| – Net Position: | 17,215 | -24,414 | 7,199 |
| – Gross Longs: | 85,410 | 81,694 | 19,764 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 68,195 | 106,108 | 12,565 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 50.0 | 48.1 | 66.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 13.1 | -16.2 | 25.8 |
Platinum Futures:
The Platinum Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 16,137 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly reduction of -4,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,261 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 50.8 | 33.0 | 12.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.4 | 65.1 | 3.6 |
| – Net Position: | 16,137 | -22,213 | 6,076 |
| – Gross Longs: | 35,098 | 22,808 | 8,577 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 18,961 | 45,021 | 2,501 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 3.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 33.4 | 65.5 | 49.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.5 | 10.0 | 8.0 |
Palladium Futures:
The Palladium Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -4,271 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly reduction of -974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,297 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.9 | 63.4 | 11.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 53.9 | 22.2 | 14.2 |
| – Net Position: | -4,271 | 4,632 | -361 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,792 | 7,131 | 1,238 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 6,063 | 2,499 | 1,599 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 2.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 20.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.4 | 19.5 | -19.5 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
