Precious Metals Monday 16-01-2023

Muted Start For Metals on Back Of Last Week's Gains The metals market is seeing a more tempered start to the week with both gold and silver futures under mild selling pressure across early European trading on Monday. Both metals saw decent buying last week though gold came off as the clear winner, gaining almost 4% across the week.The main driver behind the shift higher in metals has been the fresh downside we’ve seen in USD. A softer December inflation reading has bolstered the view that the Fed will look to further slow the pace of its monetary tightening when it meets next in February. On the back of the .5% hike seen in December, market pricing has now swung in favour of a smaller .25% hike at the February meeting. While this view remains prevalent, USD is likely to continue lower, helping support further upside in metals. With this in mind, traders will be focusing on the next round of US data due on Wednesday with PPI and retail sales both due.Interestingly, while gold prices have rallied sharply recently, price action in silver has been a lot choppier. The market now looks to be moving toward its first proper breakout of the year though recent two-way flows suggest a little caution around the China reopening story. While the news is broadly positive for silver demand, the lack of upside momentum in silver suggests there is some caution among traders with regard to the current covid news-flow out of China.Looking ahead, the near-term outlook for metals looks positive with a further sell-off in USD likely to drive higher prices in both gold and silver. With this in mind, Wednesday’s US data will likely be the main catalyst for the next directional move.Technical ViewsGoldThe breakout in gold prices continues to gather pace with the market having recently moved above the 1871.04 level. The rally has stalled into a test of the 1916.34 level for now. However, with both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on a further push higher while price holds above the 1871.04 level, with 1873.51 the next upside target for bulls.SilverThe rally in silver prices has been framed by a tight bullish channel off the 2022 lows. Recently, price has been stalled against the 24.0073 level. Momentum studies have reflected the loos of upside trajectory though are starting to move higher again suggesting room for a resumption of the bull trend. On a clear break above 24.0073, the next upside target for bulls is the 26.0974 level. Should price slip lower from here however, a downside break of the bull channel will turn focus to support at the 22.3205 level next.