Technical Analysis: Crude oil rebounds higher this week

Gold

The performance of Gold is mostly associated with the strength of the US dollar and yields of long-term bonds in both the US and other major economies. Strong labor market in January and stronger than expected CPI print had boosted the US dollar as bond yields started to grow again. That pressured Gold, driving it to the intermediate-term low of around $1805. Later Gold retraced back to the $1840 area, displaying a pause in expected tightening of monetary policy.

Softer than expected data from US PMI supported commodity markets, including Gold, as the US dollar had taken a break.

According to FedWatchTool from CME group, market discounts two points of rising rate until May 2023. Probabilities of a third point of rising are concentrating at around 30%, so that might be an intrigue.

Trader will monitor for publications of non-manufacturing PMI on Friday, as well as next week’s number from the labor market.

Technical view:

From a technical point of view, there are two potential scenarios now. The orange one assumes strong economic publcations (PMI and NFP numbers) and further strengthening of the US dollar, the white scenario might happen in a case of a mild drawdown of macroeconomic data and less hawkish FED.

Last week Fiber and Gold where both are making bearish corrections since the US Dollar Index wass trading in a slightly bullish movement. Read More..

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