Week Ahead – ECB set to pause tightening cycle, a big week for earnings

US

Now that Fed Chair Powell signaled that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates on hold at the next policy meeting, Wall Street will look to see how high growth will peak before the economy cools in Q4.  Expectations are for the advance reading of Q3 GDP to rise from 2.1% to 4.3%.  Investors will also want to see if the September income and spending data show the consumer is still in good shape, as both readings are expected to post 0.4% monthly gains. 

Big earnings for the week will come from 3M, Alphabet, Amazon, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Boeing, Boston Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Chevron, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Coca-Cola, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, Ford Motor, General Electric, General Motors, Hershey, Intel, International Business Machines, Merck, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Novartis, PG&E, United Parcel Service, United Rentals, Verizon Communications, Visa, and Volkswagen  

Washington DC will remain in the spotlight as House Republicans continue to struggle to elect a new House speaker.  

Eurozone

The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week, as per the communication following its last meeting in September. The question for many traders is whether the central bank is in fact done or if it can be tempted into another increase. Recent moves in bond yields suggest investors are increasingly coming around to the idea of higher for longer. It will be interesting to see if the ECB addresses this or welcomes the recent moves. Flash PMIs will also be of interest considering the risk of recession going into next year.

UK 

Delayed unemployment data and flash PMI surveys will be in focus next week. There’s still significant uncertainty around the UK from the sustainability of declining inflation – which Governor Bailey claimed will fall sharply in October – to high wages, weak retail sales, and the potential economic drag. Unemployment has been ticking higher in this time which may give the BoE comfort that wage growth will soon normalize. Central bank appearances later in the week will also be of interest. 

Russia

Higher inflation is keeping up the pressure on the Russian central bank to raise rates, which it’s expected to do again next week, taking the Key Rate to 14% from 13%, currently. The rouble remains extremely weak so it may take more than a 1% increase to improve its fortunes and get inflation back under control.

South Africa

Inflation came in slightly above expectations in September and despite it still being well within the SARBs 3-6% target range, that will make policymakers a little uncomfortable. Against that backdrop, the PPI figures next week will be eyed for signs of further inflationary pressures in the pipeline. 

Turkey

The focus next week will be on the CBRT rate decision, with there once more being a wide range of forecasts, but the consensus falling somewhere around a 5% hike. This comes amid inflation running at more than 60% in September and the lira continuing to hit record lows. 

Switzerland

No major economic releases or events next week.

China

A quiet week on the economic calendar where we only have year-to-date industrial profits to September on Friday. It is expected to contract at a slower pace of -9% y/y versus -11.7% recorded in August.

The limelight will be on Country Garden, China’s biggest private property developer which is now in a “technical default” situation after it failed to honor the overdue coupon payments of US$15.4 million of an offshore dollar bond following its grace period which expired on 18 October. The focus now will be on the negotiation with its bondholders on restructuring the overdue coupon payments and the time taken for the company to deliver a blueprint.  

Also, the grace period on another set of overdue coupon payments on offshore bonds is near expiration with one due on 27 October for US$40 million. A messy debt overhaul of Country Garden increases the systemic risk and social stability threat in China.

Several key earnings releases to take note of; CNOOC (Tuesday), China Life Insurance (Thursday), Sinopec (Thursday), China CITIC Bank (Thursday), Guangzhou Automobile (Thursday), China Construction Bank (Thursday), Agricultural Bank of China (Friday), Bank of China (Friday), China Merchants Bank (Friday), Ping An Insurance (Friday).

India

No key data releases.

Australia

On Tuesday, we will have flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers for October.

A rather hawkish rhetoric in the RBA minutes – in which one sentence stated, “the board has a low tolerance for a slow return of inflation to target than currently expected” – led to a jump in expectations of an interest rate hike in the next RBA meeting on 7 November. Based on data from the pricing of the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures as of 18 October, there’s a 23% chance (up from 3% a week ago) of an interest hike of 25 basis points (bps) to bring the official cash rate to 4.35% after a fourth consecutive pause in early October.

The release of Australia’s Q3 inflation data on Wednesday is likely to be pivotal in altering the expectations of a potential interest rate hike. A deceleration to 5.3% y/y is expected for Q3 from 6% in the previous quarter. The Q3 trimmed mean CPI  is expected to fall to 5% y/y versus 5.9% in Q2.

However, the less lagging CPI indicator for September is expected to show another uptick in inflation to 5.4% versus 5.2% in August. That would be the second consecutive month of higher inflation which may put a hawkish RBA vibe back on the agenda.

New Zealand

ANZ-Roy consumer confidence data for October will be released on Friday where it is forecasted to decline to 82.6 from 86.4 in September. That would be the lowest reading since May 2023.

Japan

Flash manufacturing and services PMIs for October will be released on Tuesday with the former expected to improve slightly to 49 from 48.5 in September while growth in the latter is expected to dip slightly to 52.9 from 53.8.

On Friday, the leading Tokyo area inflation data for October is expected to show core CPI remaining at 2.5% y/y but growth in the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) dipping slightly to 2.2% y/y from 2.4%. That would be the slowest core-core inflationary growth in Tokyo since March 2023.

Singapore

A slew of key economic data releases starting on Monday with the CPI report for September. The headline inflation rate is expected to increase slightly to 4.2% y/y from 4% in August while the expectation for the core inflation rate is a dip to 3.1% y/y from 3.4%; a declining trend in place since May 2023.

Industrial production for September will be released on Thursday and a smaller contraction of -2.6% y/y is expected from -12.1% in August. That would be a significant improvement after it previously recorded its sharpest drop since November 2019.

On Friday, we have the preliminary Q3 unemployment rate which is expected to hold steady at 1.9%. PPI (factory gate prices) is expected to decline again in September at a rate of 3.0% y/y, almost the same pace as the -3.7% in August, and the softest since January 2023.

Economic Calendar

Sunday, Oct. 22

Economic Data/Events

Federal elections in Switzerland

Monday, Oct. 23

Economic Data/Events

Eurozone consumer confidence

Singapore CPI

Taiwan jobless rate, industrial production

Thailand customs trade

EU foreign ministers meet in Luxembourg

Japan PM Kishida delivers policy speech at Diet session

Singapore International Energy Week runs through Friday

Australia PM Albanese visits the US and meets with President Biden on Wednesday

Tuesday, Oct. 24

Economic Data/Events

US Flash PMIs 

European Flash PMIs: Eurozone, Germany, France, and the UK

UK jobless claims, unemployment

Mexico international reserves

Megacap tech earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet

UN Security Council expected to discuss the Middle East situation

European Union expected to unveil plans for wind energy industry

RBA Gov Bullock speaks at the Commonwealth Bank Annual Conference in Sydney

Euro-area bank lending survey

International Energy Agency releases its World Energy Outlook annual report

Wednesday, Oct. 25

Economic Data/Events

US new home sales

Australia CPI

Canada rate decision: Expected to keep rates on hold at 5.00%

Germany IFO business climate

Russia industrial production

Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee delivers his second policy address

Thursday, Oct. 26

Economic Data/Events

ECB rate decision: Expected to keep main refinancing rate at 4.50%

US Advance Q3 GDP Q/Q: 4.3%e v 2.1% prior, Personal Consumption 3.7%e v 0.8% prior, Sept wholesale inventories, Sept durable goods, weekly initial jobless claims

Hong Kong trade

Mexico unemployment

Singapore industrial production, unemployment

South Korea GDP

Turkey rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 500bps to 35.00%

Earnings from Intel and Amazon

EU leaders summit in Brussels

Outgoing BOE’s Cunliffe speaks on cross-border payments in Washington

Friday, Oct. 27

Economic Data/Events

US personal spending and income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, PCE Core Deflator

China industrial profits

Japan Tokyo CPI

Mexico trade

Russia rate decision: Policymakers will discuss the possibility of a further rate hike from the current level of 13%

Singapore home prices

Spain GDP

Earnings from Exxon

Sovereign Rating Updates

France (Fitch)

Sweden (Fitch)

Finland (S&P)

Sweden (S&P)

Belgium (Moody’s)

EFSF (Moody’s)

ESM (Moody’s)

Italy (DBRS)