Week Ahead – UK inflation, earnings, interest rate decisions galore

US

The week before the July 26th FOMC meeting will contain a handful of key economic reports and several key earnings results. The initial assessment of the economy is somewhat upbeat as CEO Jamie Dimon noted that the US economy continues to be ‘resilient’. Next week’s big earnings include Goldman Sachs, Tesla, Netflix, Morgan Stanley, and American Express.  

On Monday, the ISM manufacturing report will show activity is slowing down, with the headline reading expected to fall back into contraction territory.  On Tuesday, the June retail sales report is expected to show strength, as major car discounts encouraged buying.  Demand for services might still remain strong but is expected to weaken once we get into the fall.  Industrial production probably won’t impress given the weakness we saw with the PMI readings.  On Wednesday, both building permits and housing starts should show some weakness.  Thursday’s releases include jobless claims which might only show modest labor market sluggishness and some weaker existing home sales. 

Eurozone

President Christine Lagarde’s comments at the ECB conference in Frankfurt on Monday may be the highlight next week as traders try to better understand whether the central bank is as close to the end of its tightening cycle as they think. The ECB has pushed back before but the data is looking on a much better trajectory. Final HICP inflation figures will also be released on Wednesday.

UK 

UK inflation data on Wednesday is undoubtedly the one to watch next week. It seems we’re seeing progress on inflation everywhere except the UK at the moment. The headline is expected to fall back to 8.2% for June, with core staying at 7.1%. But both have surpassed expectations on numerous occasions recently as inflation has remained stubbornly high. Are better readings from the US and eurozone a sign of things to come for the UK, finally? Retail sales will also be released on Friday.

Russia

The Russian central bank is expected to hike the key rate by 50 basis points on Friday, taking it back to 8%. This comes as inflationary pressures are building and the rouble has been falling against the dollar. It hit its lowest level since March last year, recently, which is also more than 10% below its pre-invasion levels.

South Africa

The SARB is expected to leave its repo rate unchanged next week at 8.25% after what has been a very aggressive tightening cycle. It’s risen 4.75% since September 2021 but with inflation now close to target – fresh data for June will be released a day earlier on Wednesday – the time to pause may have arrived. Of course, a nasty shock from the CPI could change that.

Turkey

The CBRT will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday and another wide range of forecasts are likely ahead of the event. The central bank broke away from the unconventional policy approach adopted prior to the election and almost immediately abandoned after, so a large hike is likely on the cards. But the new CBRT Governor was more conservative than many expected at the last meeting and could be again this time. The lira remains near record lows though so the pressure is on. 

Switzerland

No major releases or events next week. 

China

The housing price index (new home prices) for June will be released this Saturday, and it will be closely watched to monitor the financial health of Chinese property developers that are still suffering from a bout of debt overhang due to overleveraging in the past 5 years. In the prior month of May, average new home prices have managed to inch up 0.1% year-on-year after consecutive months of contractions since April 2022.

On Monday, we will have the release of Q2 GDP, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment data. Retail sales and the youth unemployment figures will be pivotal for gauging the current state of internal demand which has been lackluster since March. Growth in retail sales for June is expected to plummet to 3.2% year-on-year from 12.7% recorded in May. On the labor market front, the youth unemployment rate surged to a record high of 20.8% in May, that’s about four times above the nationwide unemployment rate.

On Monday, China’s central bank, the PBoC will decide on its one-year Medium-Term Lending Facility Rate (currently at 2.65%) followed by Thursday’s decision on the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (currently at 3.55% and 4.20%, respectively). 

Given the latest policy pledge by PBoC to stabilize growth via utilizing its arsenal of monetary policy tools, there is a possibility that another round of interest rate cuts may be implemented in the coming week.

India

No major key data releases.

Australia

The RBA minutes of the last monetary policy meeting held on 4th July will be released on Tuesday. Market participants will be scrutinizing the details of the minutes for hints on whether the current official cash rate of 4.1% is the terminal rate for the current tightening cycle after the RBA chose to stand pat on 4th July.  Based on the RBA Rate Indicator as of 14th July, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures for the August 2023 contract has priced in a 29% probability of a 25-bps hike to bring the cash rate to 4.35% at the next monetary policy decision on 1st August; that’s a decrease in odds from 52% seen in a week ago.

Labor market conditions for June will be out on Tuesday; employment change is expected to be lower at 17,000 versus 75,900 in May while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.6%.

New Zealand

Q2 inflation data is due out on Wednesday. Expectations are for a cooler print of 5.9% year-on-year from 6.7% printed in Q1. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, it is expected to slide to 0.9% from 1.2% in Q1. If this cooler consensus turns out as expected, it will be the second (y/y) and third (q/q) consecutive quarters of an inflationary growth slowdown.

Japan

Balance of trade data for June is due out on Thursday; growth in exports is expected to improve to 2.2% year-on-year from 0.6% in May while imports are expected to deteriorate further to -11.3% year-on-year from -9.9% in June.  

Inflation data will then be released on Friday. The core inflation rate for June is expected to tick slightly higher to 3.3% year-on-year from 3.2% in May while June’s core-core inflation rate (excluding fresh food & energy) is expected to remain at an elevated sticky level of 4.3% year-on-year in May. If these inflationary prints come in as expected, it is likely to put more pressure on the Bank of Japan to bring forward monetary policy normalization, a tilt away from the current ultra-dovish stance.

Singapore

The key data to note will be the balance of trade for June to be released on Monday; non-oil exports growth declined to -14.7% year-on-year in May, its 8th consecutive month of contraction. Another weak reading is expected for June due to a weak external environment, especially from China, one of its major trading partners.